Sharpe's Opinion

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Buying Diazepam, Last night all of Twitter was abuzz with talk about an opinion poll. Well, OK, Diazepam 5mg tablets generic for valium, 'all of Twitter' maybe exaggerating a little. But there were one or two people talking about it. The reason for the interest in this particular poll was that it showed both Labour and the Conservatives falling, and the Lib Dems at second place with only 3 points between them and the Tories, diazepam halflife.

What really got people talking, though, Diazepam onset of action, was what happens when you put the polling figures into a seats calculator, which purports to give a prediction for the results at the next election. In short, whilst the popular vote comes out at 33%-30%-28% for Tories, Lib Dems and Labour respectively, the swing calculators still give Labour the most seats, Buying Diazepam. Cure simultaneous ill-advised gloating from the official Labour Twitter account, concerned warnings from ConservativeHome, diazepam versus lorazepam for anxiety, and outraged claims that our 'broken' electoral system means a party can 'come third' and still win the election from (you guessed it) the Lib Dems. You'd think they'd be happy about a prediction which had them nearly doubling the size of their parliamentary party. Diazepam photo, My fellow podcaster Mark Thompson asks if this is 'the most eloquent argument for electoral reform you'll see'.

I hope for his sake that it isn't, since it leaves much to be desired. Buying Diazepam, First of all, note the lovely non-sequitur - a party can come third and still win. That is, diazepam fda approval, of course, what one calls a logical fallacy, Diazepam for canines, since it alters the meaning of 'win' halfway through the sentence - in actual fact the party that 'wins' the election (more accurately, the one asked to form the government) is the one that wins the most seats. What's really meant by 'coming third and still winning' is that by one measure the parties came out in a certain order; by a different measure they came out in a different order. It's a bit like pointing out that an X Factor finalist can come last on votes, diazepam schedule, but still have the nicest hair. It's perfectly true, Diazepam for 10 cents, but not exactly meaningful.

Now, one can make the argument that national vote share is more important than share of seats, and I'm sure most of the people arguing for reform would do exactly that, but to portray the two measures as functionally equivalent is intellectual dishonesty, from people who ought to know better, Buying Diazepam.

But that's not really the major problem with the argument. The major problem is that the seat predictions given by UK Polling Report are, as Mark well knows, drug interactions diazepam, based on a uniform national swing. That is to say, Online pharmacy comparison diazepam, they take (notional) results from 2005, superimpose the percentage changes suggested by this opinion poll, and then present a national result based on which seats would supposedly fall, assuming the national vote swing was reflected perfectly across each constituency in the country, diazepam plant derivative. In other words, it takes those two different way of measuring votes described above, Valium diazepam intestinal bleeding, superimposes them, and gives out an answer. Buying Diazepam, Which is fine for making pretty maps and having fun with predictions, but when trying to make a serious argument for a fundamental change to an electoral system is seems... Well, a tad.., diazepam advanced guestbook 2.3.2. You know...

Wrong. Diazepam 5mg tablets price, As the ever-reasonable Mat Bowles points out, uniform swings don't exactly work, and leave out a vast number of factors which could potentially have a massive impact on an election as volatile as this one is shaping up to be.

Here's the thing, Buying Diazepam. I live in a tight Labour/Tory marginal, diazepam 10mg 2ml. On paper. When we decided on our campaign strategy, Diazepam no prescription 10mg 39.99, it was fairly easy. I went through the numbers, pointed out that Labour were dead in the water with a non-existent activist base, no local Govt presence and that we ought to be fighting to win, diazepam codeine interaction. Buying Diazepam, My PPC and agent were persuaded that this was at least a viable strategy; we're fighting the Tories for first place, "Labour have Lost it in Calder Valley" (that was my slogan, quite proud of it actually). [...]

Uniform swing calculators cannot, and will not, Diazepam 10 mg for sale, take into account the effect of a strong local campaign, or even the third party squeeze effect in reverse. Once Labour voters in an area are convinced their candidate can't win, some of them will switch to us to stop the Tory candidate, pudendal neuropathy diazepam. I don't want to live under a Tory MP, they sure as hell don't. Questions on diazepam, This sort of effect is exactly what happened in Canada when their Tory Govt got eviscerated.

Now, I'm not denying it's absolutely possible that the UK Polling Report seat prediction could be played out exactly throughout election night. Just like it's possible that the Liberal Democrats could find themselves riding the crest of an immense online campaign and winning every seat they contest, Buying Diazepam. And it's possible that David Cameron could put in such a barnstorming performance in the third TV debate that the Tories win the strongest majority since Blair. But possible is far from the same thing as inevitable, safely purchase diazepam online.

If the popular vote did diverge so significantly from the proportion of seats won by each party that the party with the most seats was the one with the third largest share of the vote, it could trigger a crisis of confidence in the our system of parliamentary democracy, Plants deriving diazepam, and possibly a widespread public call for voting reform. But that would depend on whether or not the public do actually value votes for national parties above votes for local candidates. Buying Diazepam, I genuinely don't know what would happen or what the answer would be. It would, in fact, diazepam is lipid soluble, be really fascinating to watch.

As I've pointed out before, 100 diazepam, though, personally I'm apathetic on reforming voting systems ((Do note, this is not necessarily the same as apathy about political reform - I'm very interested in things like recall elections, or banning party whipping.)). To me, it's one of those perfect little meta-issues that people can get ideologically wound up about, but under any system we're still electing politicians, and what matters will always be who we elect, not how we elect them.

In fact, I'd happily put it to a referendum and go with whatever the public decide. And then I'd abstain, Buying Diazepam.

What I can't help but get wound up about, though, is sensible people happily promoting bogus arguments ((So sue me. ;) )) as if the end of electoral reform justifies the means of presenting a dishonest case. So if that's the 'most eloquent' argument I'll ever see, I'm afraid I'll not be banging the drum for electoral reform just yet.

PS: sometimes a lot can happen very rapidly - I lefft this post to marinate for a few hours and now a new poll has the Lib Dems in first place. For the sake of consistency I should point out that I don't take much stock in political polling, as I've said before. The only poll that matters will take place on May 6th. In the meantime, though, ever since the TV debate the phrase 'interesting times' has been rolling around my head.].

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Purchase Alprazolam

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image by Charlotte

Purchase Alprazolam, I thought I ought blog one or two thoughts about last night's 'Leaders Debate', having spammed my Twitter followers with opinion on the matter last night. Don't worry, though. I'll try and keep it fairly light - and we'll almost definitely be talking about it on House of Comments when we record next Tuesday with Conor Pope and Chris Mounsey, order alprazolam argentina, so I'll save an opinion or two for that (this week's podcast is online now, incidentally, Online pharmacy eu alprazolam, and includes a plug for my new iPhone app, which I'll write more about when it's approved by Apple).

Anyway, without further ado, drug interactions alprazolam, on to the leaders debate. It's hard to think of things to say which haven't already been covered well enough elsewhere, Alprazolam lorazepam dentist, but I'll make a valiant attempt to provide something interesting.

- – -

First of all, the overall outcome of the debate, which most people agree Nick 'I Agree With Nick' Clegg come out on top of, was fairly predictable - Nick Clegg had the most to gain in terms of exposure, for most people he's a new face and somewhat refreshing, and he successfully played the 'a plague on both your houses' card throughout the debate to fairly good effect (though I thought his 'these two' schtick grew tiresome towards the end and his closing remarks sounded a little petulant afterwards, in light of this), Purchase Alprazolam.

Cameron, by contrast, had by far the most to lose, alprazolam class schedule, and by far the least to gain. His opponents have spent 3 years or so creating a Straw Cameron who's incredibly media-friendly and polished, Alprazolam 0.25, and entirely in command of any situation. Going on TV live and being attacked from (quite literally) both sides for 90 minutes, he was unlikely to live up to this weight of expectation, and so it came to pass that we discovered he's actually a fairly normal politician, cheap alprazolam no prescription, not a demi-God of Obama proportions. In the end he didn't come off badly, Alprazolam blue vs white tablets, and he managed not to trip over his own shoelaces. Purchase Alprazolam, He probably hasn't gained any new Conservative voters from this, but he might easily have reinforced the 'soft Tory' vote; those Conservatives who maybe were wavering about who to support. As Mark said in his post, it's quite commendable that Cameron even agreed to doing the debate in the first place. Tony Blair refused to take part in a debate like this against John Major, online questionaire for alprazolam, and it isn't hard to see why.

I'm not sure I can give an unbiased account of Gordon Brown, Alprazolam controlled sustance, however, because when he speaks he often makes me feel queasy. Particularly when he talked about the military. He suffers greatly from incumbency, and I found myself often wondering why, if education, House of Lords reform and military spending were such high priorities for him, he's allowed the last 13 years to go by without making the huge sweeping changes to these things that he's now promising, Purchase Alprazolam. Also, receive online alprazolam no prescription, his confrontational attitude towards Cameron, and his line about 'now is the time for answers, Order alprazolam 22, David' could quite easily have played well with the home crowd, but I thought it made him sound petty and argumentative - and David Cameron's attempts to rise above this were reasonably successful and somewhat commendable, even though it probably made him seem a little weak to hardened political commentators ((UPDATE: And another thing... I forgot to ask, alprazolam metabolism, but thankfully patently has reminded me, what the hell was Brown going on about with his 'taking £6bn out of the economy' schtick. 2 alprazolam mg, I think on this point, Cameron out to have risen to him and challenged him to explain what he meant by this, and why he thinks 'the economy' is confined to state spending.)).

Clearly Clegg came out on top, alprazolam gg 249, as everyone seems to agree. Purchase Alprazolam, To me, Cameron was a strong second and Brown a weak third, the significant difference between the two in my mind that Cameron came off as principled and gentlemanly, Brown as partisan and aggressive.

Overall, Withdrawl symptoms from alprazolam, the debate was surprisingly interesting, and though I found my attention slipping many times, it wasn't as painful an experience as I was expecting.

- – -

It's worth speaking to the 'presidential' nature of these debates, alprazolam xr 24h, but Tracy Cheetham wrote so well of this last night on her House of Twits blog that it's pointless my finding another way of saying the same thing:

This whole General Election campaign has taken on a new style of operation. It is not about reaching the politically disengaged, Alprazolam cod money orders acceptable, it is about Leaders. We are increasingly seeing a presidential campaign and this is not going to benefit any of the other 647 PPCs who are wanting to be elected. Essentially, what we saw tonight was a Party Election Broadcast for the constituencies of Sheffield Hallam, Witney and Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath, for it is only voters in these areas that will be able to vote for Clegg, Cameron and Brown, Purchase Alprazolam. The rest of us, we vote for a local MP, alprazolam online without prescription, whose job is to represent our views.

- – -

Anyway, an analysis of this debate wouldn't be complete without the words 'I agree with Nick' appearing somewhere. Greenstone alprazolam 2mg, Gordon Brown said this at least four or five times, and whilst Cameron didn't express this sentiment so clearly, it was evident that both the major party leaders were being extra civil to Mr Clegg. A cynic might wonder about the possibility of a hung parliament, parachuting alprazolam er, and wonder if they were courting the Liberal leader for a possible coalition. Nick Clegg, Alprazolam al no prescription, for his part, seemed utterly furious about this sudden outbreak of consensualism, at one point railing against both of the other leaders for voting against Lib Dem bills they now claimed to be in full agreement with. Purchase Alprazolam, It was pretty good TV.

This could have played out in a few ways, alprazolam cheap. Clegg could have been tainted by Brown's apparent agreement with all of his policies, for instance, Alprazolam addiction, with the implication that the Lib Dems aren't all that different from Labour. What appears to have happened is quite the opposite, with 'I Agree With Nick' trending on Twitter briefly last night and the Lib Dems seemingly instantly adopting the phrase as a new campaigning slogan. If Brown agrees with Nick so much, alprazolam euphoric, one wonders, why vote for Brown, when you could have Nick instead.

All of this adds up to a new burning fire within the Lib Dems, Purchase Alprazolam. The Facebook group, apparently set up independently, named We got Rage Against the Machine to #1, we can get the Lib Dems into office! now has over 40,000 members and shows a degree of popular support for the yellows (or would that be the turquioses). It's a popular and much repeated fact that the British love an underdog, especially a plucky one. The Lib Dems won't win a majority at the next election, and probably can't overtake either party to make it to third place, but if Nick can continue to portray himself as David against Goliath (as it were) his party could get the best electoral result they've seen in generations.

Of course, I've just implicitly suggested that Nick Clegg is, in fact, the Tim Henman of British politics. Purchase Alprazolam, Lib Dems, make of that what you will.

- – -

Update (3:45PM): Channel 4 have made a 60-second version of last night's debate which actually makes quite an impressive quick summary. It also shows, in microcosm, pretty much everything I have described above about the various leaders' styles. QI.

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Duty Calls by xkcdWith the election coming, many websites have sprung up offering simple ways to get the most out of democracy. Administration alprazolam route xanax, Most purport to be doing a public service, and are probably created with the best of intentions. The problem is, a lot of them are, to use the technical term, alprazolam onsale, utter bollocks ((You'll have to excuse the length of this post, incidentally, since I'm pretty busy working on my own internet-based democracy application at the moment, Iv alprazolam, and don't have time to edit)).

VoteMatch

VoteMatch is a non-partisan (or should that be multi-partisan) website which asks you for your position on a variety of issues, and then presents you with a list of parties you might consider voting for, Order Alprazolam Without A Prescription. Unfortunately, it's flawed in ways beyond measure. The system works by presenting you with a list of just over 30 statements and asking you to agree or disagree (there's also an 'Open Minded' choice if you don't wish to answer). In other words, order alprazolam usa pharmacy cheap, the program's creators feel that a person's political outlook can be determined by their 'yes or no' response to 32 soundbites. Some of the statements are worded very strangely, too, Alprazolam sleep, so as to require a nuanced answer - take, for instance, the statement "the Government should be compelled by law to halve the budget deficit within 4 years." Personally, I largely agree with the concept reducing the deficit drastically in a short timeframe - but I don't understand how a Government can be 'compelled by law' to do anything. Order Alprazolam Without A Prescription, Do I answer 'yes' to deficit reduction part of the statement, or 'no' to the law section of the statement. Beyond that, lorazepam vs alprazolam, if I wasn't nerdy about politics, would I even catch the nuance in the question, or respond in a predictable way ((Analysing this question a little deeper, Alprazolam varieties, the '4 years' thing is a (stereotypically) New Labour policy - but the policy of deficit reduction is shared by all parties, with the Tories most forthright on it. If I agree with the statement on the basis that I want the deficit reduced it's presumably taken as a pro-Labour decision by VoteMatch.)).

The VoteMatch problems don't end there, however, dangers of alprazolam. As Iain Dale discovered, the algorithm seems unnaturally weighted towards minor parties such as Green, UKIP and BNP. Despite being largely centrist in outlook, my results came up UKIP first, Green second and BNP third, with Tory, Lib Dem and Labour a distant 4th 5th and 6th respectively, Order Alprazolam Without A Prescription. Buy 2mg alprazolam, Being fair, I could get a fairly sensible and believable answer out of VoteMatch (Tories just edging over Lib Dems, with Labour distant third) by choosing to ignore the minor parties - but fundamentally that's not how the system is supposed to work.

This minor party bias is, presumably, buy alprazolam without prescription, partly because of the 'soundbite' nature of the questions and responses - though one commenter on Iain Dale's site suggested another possible problem:

I had a play around with this last night, by answering only one question and skipping the rest.

It looks like they start by assuming 100% correlation and then removing marks for any disagreements between your views and the manifestos... Issues with alprazolam, but since UKIP and the BNP have, basically, just one policy each, unless you vehemently disagree with it ("support unlimited immigration", "the UK should be run by Brussels") you end up with them as the top matches.

Now, street value of alprazolam, I don't know if that is what's happening, but it sounds reasonably plausible to me. Order Alprazolam Without A Prescription, In other words, VoteMatch is not only dumbing down political expression by design, it's giving unfair weighting to minor parties and those which do not have a well-defined manifesto.

By contrast, Notense alprazolam photos, I've discovered a rather wonderful (and nowhere near as well-publicised) site called Vote For Policies. This site is subtly different to VoteMatch in that instead of asking for yes or no answers, it presents a number of statements from different parties about an issue, without telling you which party matches which statement. You're then asked to choose between the statements, alprazolam no script overnight delivery, and matched to a party on the basis of your choices. Personally, I found this site gave a result which much more closely correlated with what I know about the various parties and my own political outlook - though, Alprazolam sublingual, I suppose your mileage may vary.

VoterPower

Despite the fact that I may have gone on about VoteMatch for a little while just there, VoterPower is the site which really moved me to blog this morning, Order Alprazolam Without A Prescription. This site is essentially a dumbed-down advert for proportional representation in our electoral system, and it attempts to convince us that proportional representation is the One True Way™ by describing the 'power' of your vote as a proportion of '1 vote'. For instance, VoterPower claims that in Derby South (where I live) 'one person does not really have one vote, half life of alprazolam, they have the equivalent of 0.048 votes.'

Well, I'll be honest, that doesn't sound good. Alprazolam no prescription, Even worse, according to the site 'the average UK voter has 5.26x more voting power than voters in Derby South.'

That would be the 'average voter' who, apparently, has 0.251 of a vote.

Wait.., alprazolam generic for xanax. Order Alprazolam Without A Prescription, What?.

Rewind a little, let's talk maths. Correct me in the comments, Alprazolam alprazolam controlled release, if you like, but if there's 45 million votes shared between 45 million voters, each voter has an average of, well, 1 vote, order alprazolam online no prescription. No. Alright, I see, Alprazolam drops, they're probably not using the mean, so let's be charitable and assume it just depends on what your definition of 'average' is. They're probably using the median, or something, Order Alprazolam Without A Prescription. Of an undefined set of numbers. Where somehow the average has ended up as only one quarter.

Anyway, online alprazolam, we'll leave the average-is-a-quarter thing aside, since there's something even fishier about these numbers. See, Que es alprazolam, if Derby South is a 'safe' seat and thus I have less than one vote, presumably voters in a close marginal constituency like, say, Watford (one of only a handful of 'three-way marginals') must have more than 1 vote - to compensate for my political impotence. Order Alprazolam Without A Prescription, Apparently not. Voters in Watford have '0.700 votes', experiences of alprazolam.

OK, OK. What about a target seat. Buy alprazolam now, One that will almost definitely change hands at the next election. One with a majority of under 50, Order Alprazolam Without A Prescription. How about Finchley and Golders Green, top of the Conservative's target list ((Actually, since everyone's predicting a large swing to the Tories at the next election, the real marginals are closer to 75-150 on the Tories target list.)). Well, they have 0.950 votes.

So if they don't have a whole vote, who does?. Surely, somebody has to have more than 1 vote, or else how does an election take place. Order Alprazolam Without A Prescription, From what I can tell, not according to VoterPower. By their logic, nobody in the country actually has a vote. No wonder the average is only just over a quarter.

The whole site is designed to make you feel bad about our current voting system. It's pretty effective, too. Emotive language, half-truths (("If the UK had a proportional voting system we would no longer have safe seats" O RLY?)) and extremely dodgy statistics combine to present an utterly fallacious argument, dressed up as an informational website, Order Alprazolam Without A Prescription. It's like reading a Lib Dem leaflet. Or an infographic.

- – -

Anyway, if you've seen any other good examples of websites playing fast and loose with information (like, say, POWER2010's Most Wanted List, or Lib Dem Voice's Rank, which I discussed with Mark Pack and Alex Foster from Lib Dem Voice on the House of Comments Podcast a few weeks ago) do let me know in the comments. Perhaps we should keep a running list.

This is not to denigrate the efforts of excellent resources like TheyWorkForYou.com and YourNextMP.com or even UK Polling Report which provide excellent informational services online. But if we're now in new age of connected voters and 'internet elections', we ought to expect much, much better than this.

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Wednesday, 7th Apr, 2010